Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
The pressure on India to take a hostile attitude towards Russia and China was not subtle, but it was guarded, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan after Monday's 2+2 ministerial meeting in Washington, DC.
Putin said the 'policy' pursued by Modi is the main 'guarantor' of relations between the two countries.
The move is expected to bolster India's energy security.
Russia has promised India four to five million tonnes of crude oil annually from its Far East Siberian oil fields if it fails to accommodate ONGC Videsh Ltd in Yuganskneftegaz, the core asset of Yukos that has been acquired by Russian state-owned Ros
A vilification campaign against Rosneft has begun in right earnest, says M K Bhadrakumar.
The 2+2 was attended by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and their Indian counterparts S Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh respectively.
New Delhi has reached out to Moscow while waiting for a new president in Washington. New Delhi knows well that in international relations, there are no permanent friends or foes, only permanent national interests, points out Dr Rup Narayan Das.
Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, rose to $130.50 per barrel on Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. The international benchmark, Brent crude, hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
The agreement came in after the Ruias agreed to clear most of the Rs 26,000-crore dues to the lenders on completion of the transaction.
US Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh also referred to the 'no limits' partnership between Moscow and Beijing and said no one believes that Russia would come running to India's defence if China breaches the Line of Actual Control.
Rosneft bought a 49 per cent stake in Essar Oil's refinery port and petrol pumps, while Netherlands-based Trafigura Group Pte, one of the world's biggest commodity trading companies, and Russian investment fund United Capital Partners split another 49 per cent equity equally.
Crude oil shipments from the US to India rose to the highest levels in November since the conflict began in Ukraine in late February, sparking hopes of a resurgence in oil flows from the US to the subcontinent, reveals shipping data. Shipments from the US have surged as Western nations prepare to impose additional sanctions on Russian crude flows. The US shipped around 450,000 barrels per day of crude last month to India, twice that of shipments in October, according to data from London-based commodity intelligence provider Vortexa.
The exploration and production assets of Essar Oil will not be part of the Rosneft deal and would continue to remain with the Group.
Given that India will get a huge part of its oil supplies from Iran through its government-owned oil PSUs, any unwelcome shocks in global crude rates could be absorbed well enough.
EAM Jaishankar's mission is aimed at strengthening India's strategic autonomy in a complex international environment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India has substantially increased its crude oil imports from the US, with the country's share in India's crude basket hitting a record 14.3 per cent in December, commerce ministry data showed.
"No one has ever accused India of supporting what is going on in Ukraine. What India seems to be doing is trying to operate within the policy outlined by Nehru 65 years back," said a source.
Price said India's relationship with Russia developed over several decades.
Moscow-based OAO Rosneft Chairman Igor Ivanovich Sechin said the agreement was to ship by sea as much as 10 million tons of oil per year to Essar Group.
The Modi government finds itself in a contradiction of its own making. It has encouraged pro-Russian, Westophobic public sentiment while setting strategic policy that's exactly the opposite, points out Shekhar Gupta.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
Tightening Russian gas supplies to Europe has led to scramble for tankers before winter sets in.
India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
CNG price in the national capital and adjoining cities on Tuesday was hiked by Rs 0.50 per kg, while an imminent increase in petrol and diesel price has been put on wait-and-watch mode for more clarity on global oil prices. CNG price in NCT of Delhi has been increased to Rs 57.51 per kg from Rs 56.51, according to the information posted on the website of Indraprastha Gas Ltd - the firm which retails CNG and piped cooking gas in the national capital. Following the firming up of international gas rates, IGL has been raising CNG rates by up to 50 paise (Rs 0.50) per kg periodically. Prices have gone up by about Rs 4 per kg this year alone.
Sources had earlier said Modi and Putin would also deliberate on impact of US sanctions on import of crude oil from Iran.
The dreary, cold months from December to February may prove to be the undoing of many a nation as they grapple with sky-high fuel prices - a result of the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic. Many - Europe, South Korea, Japan, and China - will still pull through on the strength of their wealth or because of strong storage infrastructure. But India will have its back to the wall. Signs of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rates hitting new records this winter are already evident.
Oil companies from India and China are seeking stake in Russia's state-owned oil major Rosneft but no concrete deals have been struck so far, Russian Energy Minister Victor Khristenko said on Friday.
Opening up India's market to neighbouring countries can be as strategic as access denial to others. The game should be played both ways, even if it upsets domestic business lobbies, observes T N Ninan.
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
As fuel prices surged in September, the government's decision to ask companies to cut price by Rs1 each on a litre of petrol and diesel came as a dampner for private players.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said even though India's options have increased, Russia will remain the country's "most important" defence partner as Moscow offered to fully manufacture in this country one of its most advanced helicopters.
'What should worry India and which needs to be expressed is Russia's simultaneous proximity to both China and Pakistan from a strategic angle. That hasn't happened ever before,' says Lieutenant General Syed Ata Hasnain (retd).
Putin, who was received by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on his arrival, went straight to Modi's official Lok Kalyan Marg residence where the two leaders had a one-on-one meeting.
After selling dollars for the past few months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take a hands-off approach before its annual account closing by not trying to prop up the rupee as geopolitical tensions show signs of stabilising with global crude oil prices easing from its $140 peak. The central bank was a net buyer of dollars between April and September, and then turned a net seller in the following months, the data released by the RBI showed. The RBI continued to be a net buyer of $36.6 billion in this fiscal year - between April and January. In 2020-21, it purchased $68 billion on a net basis.
Many of the stories, the pictures going out of India worldwide lately with these provocative processions, taunting of Muslims, bulldozers targeting mostly their properties, the sweeping 'othering' of a community of 200 million are painting the front pages and TV screens in the democratic world. That is where most of the friends we covet lie. Soon enough, these will also make our vital friends among the Muslim nations, from Bangladesh to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, uneasy. The best time for course correction is now, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
'Indian diplomacy in West Asia under the present government has been a success story -- and with Saudi Arabia in particular,' says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
Gold is usually seen as a safe-haven when stocks are falling or when inflation is rising. With prices of the yellow metal hovering near record highs, people are also putting off their jewellery purchases. Along with a subdued marriage season, the orders with price open and settled on delivery day, too, are getting cancelled. Apart from high, volatile prices, there is no gold rush yet for the safe-haven asset, crimping demand.
